Biotime (BTX)

Sludge

  • started slowly building a position in 2013 and accelerated buying since March 2014 on most dips.
  • Price targets
    • Short term $6.50 to $8
    • Medium term  $12 to $15
    • Long Term targets are complex and will be addressed in a future SR article.

The Good, the Bad, and the Sludge!

    • Good
      • Biotime consists of 8 subsidiaries focused on regenerative stem cell treatments, cancer diagnostics, and age-related degenerative diseases.
      • BTX’s recent Renshaw presentation provides in-depth analysis of the entire company and each subsidiary.
      • Recently closed additional $31 million in financing, with insiders scooping up over $12 million of the offering.
      • Three Questcor veterans are now on the BOD; Michael Mulroy and Stephen Cartt joined Neal Bradsher on Oct 6th, 2014.
      • Asterias was a recent spin-off that SR invests in.
        •  Short term catalysts to propel the shares
          • Received AST-OPC1 phase 1/2a Clinical Trial FDA Clearance
          • Received matching $14 million grant funding for AST-VAC2
          • NYSE up-listing occurred right on schedule, October 8th.
          • 2015 filled with trials, data, and potential UK partnerships
        • Biotime currently owns 70% of Asterias.  Most shares are currently locked up!
      • More subsidiaries are expected to be spun off soon
  • Bad
    • If you are looking for a quick trade, this may not be the candidate for you.  SR considers this a long term investment with a minimum 5 year hold to obtain full valuation
  • Sludge
    • Biotime has had extreme ups and downs over the years (chart below) but appears primed to unleash the potential of years of acquisitions.  The share price may not reflect true value while the story unfolds.

Charts

Company Website

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Sifting through the sludge, to find better investments.

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